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融合有效角动量函数与极限梯度提升模型的UT1-UTC超短期预报方法研究

Research on Ultra-Short-Term Prediction Method of UT1-UTC Integrating Effective Angular Momentum Function and Extreme Gradient Boosting Model

  • 摘要: 世界时(Universal Time, UT1)与协调时(Coordinated Universal Time, UTC)之差(UT1–UTC)的超短期精确预测在大地测量、卫星导航及空间地球物理领域具有重要应用价值. 研究提出一种融合有效角动量(Effective Angular Momentum, EAM)函数与极限梯度提升(Extreme Gradient Boosting, XGBoost)模型的UT1-UTC超短期预测方法. 该方法首先对UT1-UTC序列进行跳秒剔除、潮汐校正及二阶差分预处理, 再通过最小二乘(LS)模型分离趋势项与周期项, 获得平稳残差序列; 随后引入EAM历史及预报信息作为外部激励因子, 以捕捉非潮汐地球物理过程的影响, 并采用XGBoost构建残差序列的非线性预测模型, 实现多步滚动预测. 以国际地球自转和参考系统服务(International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service, IERS)的EOP (Earth Orientation Parameters) 14 C04数据集为基础进行UT1-UTC序列10 d预测与验证. 结果显示: EAM辅助的LS+XGBoost方法平均绝对误差较仅依赖UT1-UTC历史序列的模型降低约29.6%; 与第2届EOP预测比较竞赛中的方法相比, 该方法在第1、3、4 d的预报精度表现最优, 表明将物理激励信息与机器学习方法结合可有效提升UT1-UTC超短期预测性能.

     

    Abstract: Accurate ultra-short-term prediction of UT1-UTC is of critical importance for geodesy, satellite navigation, and space geophysics. This study presents a novel forecasting approach that integrates Effective Angular Momentum functions (EAM) with the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model. The method first preprocesses the UT1-UTC series by removing skip seconds, correcting tidal effects, and applying second-order differencing. Trend and periodic components are then separated using a Least Squares (LS) model to obtain stationary residuals. Historical and predicted EAM data are incorporated as external excitation factors to capture the influence of non-tidal geophysical processes. The residual sequence is subsequently modeled using XGBoost to capture nonlinear dependencies, enabling multi-step rolling forecasts. Experiments conducted on the EOP 14 C04 dataset from the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) show that, within a 10-day prediction horizon, the EAMz-assisted LS+XGBoost method reduces the mean absolute error by approximately 29.6% compared with models relying solely on the UT1-UTC historical series. Compared with methods from the Second EOP Prediction Comparison Campaign, the proposed approach achieves the highest accuracy on Days 1, 3, and 4. These results demonstrate that integrating physical excitation information with machine learning substantially enhances the ultra-short-term prediction capability of UT1-UTC.

     

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