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空间碎片轨道预报中动力学模型基准的选取

Reference Dynamic Models for Space Debris Orbit Prediction

  • 摘要: 在不同的轨道预报场景中, 使用的动力学模型也不同. 例如, 在低轨空间碎片的预报中大气阻力是十分重要的摄动力, 而到了中高轨, 大气阻力就可以忽略不计. 如何为不同轨道类型的空间碎片选择最优(满足精度要求下的最简)动力学模型还没有系统、详尽的研究. 将对不同精度需求、不同轨道类型下的大批量轨道进行预报, 通过比较不同动力学模型下的预报结果, 给出各种预报场景的最优动力学模型建议. 可以为不同轨道类型的空间碎片在轨道预报时选择基准动力学模型提供参考或标准.

     

    Abstract: In different orbit prediction scenarios, the dynamic models used are also different. For example, the atmospheric drag is a very important perturbation force in the prediction of space debris in low orbits, but at mid-to-high orbits, the atmospheric drag can be ignored. In order to select the most suitable dynamic models for orbit prediction in different scenarios, this article provides a large number of orbits for different accuracy requirements and different orbit types. By comparing the prediction results with different dynamic models, the optimal dynamic models for various prediction scenarios are recommended. This work can serve as references and standards for the selection of reference dynamics models for different orbital types of space debris in orbit prediction.

     

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